Durable Goods and Used Car Prices

Elizabeth Platt, May 2016. Reposted from the Econ 244 site.

As discussed in class, an automobile value depreciates as soon as it’s driven off the lot. A recent study using iSeeCars.com puts a number to that depreciation. Analyzing 15.7 million cars over the course of the year, the study finds the average car value loss is 17% of its value in the first year. However, individual models differ in their value loss. At the top of the spectrum, the Hyundai Genesis loses 38.2% of its value in the first year.

The study cites demand as a function of reliability, popularity compared to competitors, dependability, repair costs, and redesigns. Thus, many of the factors the study believes determine demand cannot be estimated until at the time of the purchase, making resale value more difficult to gage. The drop in value after the first year corresponds to a potential savings of $16,000 if the consumer purchases a slightly used model. Consumers have the option of buying a new car with little knowledge of its reliability or waiting a year to purchase a slightly used car with more information in one hand and savings in the other. One significant part of demand, though, is aesthetics. By waiting for a slightly used car, the consumer runs the risk the manufacturer may introduce a newer model. In a society centered on “keeping up with the Jones,” newer models make the option of a slightly used model unappealing to some consumers. On the other hand, not all cars depreciate at this magnitude, making a slightly used model less of a deal. The study found some models lose less than 10%, such as the Subaru Impreza which lost just 3% of its value in the first year. In the end, knowledge concerning the difference in value of a new and a used car can be extremely beneficial for the consumer.

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/get-there/wp/2015/01/21/the-best-bargains-for-buyers-looking-for-lightly-owned-used-cars/

...there is no such thing as a new car...

Chart by the Prof using data from the auto auction firm Adesa. These data are raw averages of varying mixes of vehicles. Tom Kontos, their chief economist, analyzes this in much greater detail, by brand, like-vehicles, with seasonal corrections and on and on.

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The Prof's comments: This is a neat topic, because the physical depreciation of a car is different from the economic depreciation. It is also at least in part a strategic variable that car companies can influence, through adjusting competition among vehicles in their model lineup and the timing of new model introductions and (as noted below by Michael Adams) fleet sale and leasing policies.

The overall declining trend is a reflection of the Great Recession: no leasing and few sales of new cars and lower incomes led to a dearth of used vehicles amidst greater demand for generally less-expensive used vehicles. That effect lingers but has largely worked its way through the system. You can though see changes by category, e.g. trucks vs smaller cars. I don't know the impact of interest rates on the "yield curve" of cars. Lower rates make both bought-new and bought-used cars less expensive, at least for purchasers who are thoughtful about their financing options. Companies such as ALG that are involved in leasing surely model that. My hunch is that the income effect – higher purchasing power – offsets the substitution effect so that there is no net impact.

Comment by Michael Adams: This article helps to explain why firms, notably General Motors, have begun to scale back on fleet vehicles. The slightly used fleet vehicles, depreciated during their time of service, are quickly resold as used cars and compete with brand new models. Consumers can reap the benefits of a purchasing a gently used car if they are willing to wait for even a few months.

Murray Manley commented: I think this article is particularly interesting because it highlights the difference in some examples of consumer and producer preferences. For example, producers are always working on producing the next model and aiming to engineer the best car that matches or exceeds the car of competitors. This “keeping up with the Jones’s” in the producer and manufacturing world leads to increased profits- whoever can produce the best vehicle the fastest will ideally sell the most cars. On the other hand, while some consumers prefer to always have a new and fashionable model of a car, others cannot afford, don’t care about, or are unaware of style changes from year to year. In that respect, the customers who care less about new models benefit because slightly used cars will always be significantly cheaper if producers continue to come out with new models quickly.

Visit to Fox Recycling

Prof Mike Smitka

composite of student blog posts

In May 2016 I led students to Detroit, where we visited a wide array of auto-related businesses, as well as seeing something of the city and talking to residents (Tyree Guyton of the Heidelberg Project) and Martin Lavelle of the Detroit Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. This is the first of several posts that will convey student observations made in their online journals and blog posts. All the underlying material can be found at the W&L WordPress site for Economics 244. I've cut-and-pasted pieces, with prose to smooth the flow, but tried to maintain the voices of my students so am deliberately leaving it a bit choppy.

This post combines material from Barrett Snyder, Michael Adams, Elizabeth Platt, David Hochstadt, plus snippets and photos from others. Due to cutting and pasting, I've not attributed everything. Particular thanks are due Barrett Snyder, who set up our visit.

Class began the morning of Thursday, May 12th by traveling from our base at the Best Western Greenfield to Belleville, Michigan, about halfway to Ann Arbor. There we visited Fox Auto Parts, which has been in business since 1973. Here we met with Bill Fox, one of two brothers, who own both an automotive recycling facility and a self service “pick and pull” style yard. Mr. Fox explained to us the process of purchasing totaled vehicles from two main auction companies, Insurance Auto Auctions and Copart, and how cars are dismantled and parts are sold to body and mechanics shops. Mr. Fox stressed the importance of purchasing the correct number of vehicles and of the correct type in order to turn a profit in a business model with such slim margins and high overhead. Auctioned vehicles run between $1,000 and $10,000, depending on the model and the condition; the average acquisition price is about $1,800. Each day Mr. Fox checks out insurance auctions online and bids on several different cars electronically. If a vehicle is not from the 40+ acre IAA facility that is located adjacent to their property, then then have to pay shipping costs as well. The focus is on relatively new vehicles; the average car is less than 10 years old. After that demand falls off, both because there are fewer vehicles left on the road, and because fewer people are willing to pay the cost of installing a "new" engine in a car that age.

Elizabeth Platt added notes on the process. The first stop was where the cars are brought in and the major parts are removed to be sold. While software helps Mr. Fox estimate of what the car is worth, until they actually get the vehicle they cannot know exactly which parts are salvageable. We watched them go through some of that process, as they inventoried a newly arrived vehicle for what sections of it seemed to have no damage – which lights appeared good and so on. They we visited the area where a power train was being dissembled and checked for leaks and other signs that it might not be good. There was also a bay where everything had been stripped all the way down to the frame of a F-150. Anyway, each pulled part is categorized with a tag to be easily accessible to be sold in the future. But once they've assessed the extent of the damage to the car and categorize all the parts from the car which they can sell, they then leave most of them on and use a forklift to put it in their yard. Then if they get an inquiry, their computer will let them know if they have a car where that part is undamaged out in their yard. That's a lot easier than pulling, categorizing and storing parts that might never sell.

The software used to purchase vehicles is called “Bid Buddy” and helps to generate a maximum bid for a vehicle by using a formula that accounts for part sales, activity, and current inventory. We also discussed the cooperation between independently owned salvage facilities. The greatest example of this was the PRP trailer system that runs across a good portion of the nation, used to transport brokered parts between recycling facilities to fulfill each others needs and help say “yes” to the customer more and more often. The network is run jointly by 80-odd recyclers, ranging from the Snyder family business in Texas at the southern extreme, through the midwest and into the northeast. Depending on locus a recycler gets a truck twice a day that can transport a body panel from Texas (no salt on the roads so no rust!) to Fox to sell to one of their customers. Fox in turn has a copious supply of Fords, including F-150s, and they may be sending a transmission from Michigan to Texas.

Sam Wilson noted that this cooperation was not just at the institutional level but also at the individual level. Not only did the owner of this yard know the father of Barrett Snyder, a member of our class whose family has owned and operated its own Auto parts yard for a long time in Texas. Barrett’s father had actually helped this owner expand into a secondary line of revenue, a You-Pull-It yard. The YPI yard was set up with many rows of cars by the same manufacturer and individuals could pay two dollars to enter the lot, search the cars and pull off/out whatever pieces that they needed. They paid a discounted price at the end for whatever they wanted to take home. From what Barrett explained, this is really becoming the larger end of the market down in Texas. This market is mainly made up of individuals who have some auto background and either: 1) are rebuilding for fun and need specific pieces for as a weekend hobby, or 2) their car broke down and rather than spend lots of money to take it to a repair shop will come to the yard and get the piece they need to be able to get to work on Monday.

They also have to judge how long to keep a car in inventory, as it uses both working capital and physical space – they keep their lot, which holds a bit over 900 vehicles, relatively full. We were all impressed that despite the outward appearance of the business as dirty and labor-extensive, it relies on a lot of technology. In addition to using a packaged computer program to assess the value of a car before bidding, Fox uses algorithms to track how often customers request certain parts based on inquiries and customer feedback; their sales staff do a lot more than just answer the phone. This information allows Fox to be sure to have high demand parts in stock at all times. The owner stressed to us during our visit that Fox is not competing directly with other salvage yards but is instead competing against auto parts stores such as Advance and NAPA, and even the OEMs. (For example, OEConnection uses their database of repair parts as the foundation for software systems that they sell to OEMs such as Ford, to help their dealers sell parts to independent repair shops including the in-house ones run by cities and other "fleet" operators.) Anyway, these national chains of parts shops and new car dealerships are the big players, along with a few large, publicly traded companies like LKQ that Fox and Snyder fee offer you poor service and a poor product because they lack the family touch.

Henry Schwartz noted that the cars are placed outside for an average of six months during which time Fox sells every part off the car that they possibly can. They can pull wires (copper), catalytic converters and other items of value. The car will be crushed and sold for scrap steel. (The don't have a shredder – for that stage of the recycling process see this blog post on the Prof's visit to one in Japan.) After six months Fox will only scrap a car after they have broken even on it by selling parts to customers. As Mr. Fox pointed out, more that 80% of the overall vehicle that comes into a facility is recycled, making it the “greenest” portion of the auto industry. Many people don’t realize that the shops that do insurance repairs for the public often use recycled parts. After receiving their vehicle back, most would assume that the parts used were brand new. All the while, that fender or windshield wiper motor that was installed is now living its life again in a vehicle instead of residing in a land-fill.

Platt was fascinated by the YPI yard. That business model illustrates how a company can make profit on items that would otherwise be discarded. By cutting out the cost of labor, the part can be sold for less and also attracts consumers seem to truly enjoy the process of finding parts and fixing their own cars. What however are the legal liabilities of this process? The customer must sign a release form and pay an admission fee, and bring their own tools, but the potential for accidents is still there. The owner did not go into detail about this. Nate Frank, another student, wondered if the ROI wasn't a lot higher in the YPI yard, as the 900+ cars in their main yard (plus the warehouse and so on) represents $8-$10 million.

David Hochstadt noted that there has been a decline in mid-sized salvage companies, many of which have been bought by larger, publicly traded companies. The smaller, family operated firms are left to fend for themselves and face the dilemma of either expanding or risking going under. Fox currently purchases around 100 cars per month whereas a firm like Barrett’s family will buy closer to 200 per month. The business is very fixed cost driven, building structures around items and engaging in capex intensive purchases like construction equipment and warehouse space, in order to move things around and store parts. In order to continue operating an expand, Fox needs to make shrewd decisions in terms of the price they pay at auctions as this will increase their margins and allow them to hire more employees, purchase more vehicles and expand their operations. It was amazing to see how much of a car can be reused even after it has been in a wreck and deemed totaled by insurance companies: everything from transmissions and engines to things like wire harnesses (as they have the highest concentration of copper in a car) and steering columns. He asked about the future of the car industry and how it would affect salvage companies as the average model year has been getting younger. Will they be able to salvage things like rear-camera systems, safety-critical parts where they would find it hard to judge whether they are truly without damage? In the next couple decades, won't the biggest threat to salvage companies be the shift to autonomous cars, as this would lower the number of accidents, hurting both how they obtain cars – supply – and demand for parts?

Tesla Note: Dealerships and Inventories

Mike Smitka

One point in my critique of Tesla's flawed business strategy is that by engaging in direct sales it uses up precious cash. First, it does continue to burn through cash, though at a slower pace: cash from operations plus financing in 2016 Q2 came to -$160 million, up from -$480 million in Q1. However, this includes $150 million in deposits for Model 3, so on a recurring basis they went through -$310 million. This was offset by $2 billion in new money, but I would expect financial markets to prove reluctant to keep providing new money at this pace. So Tesla needs to conserve on cash. Yes, they receive cash from leasing, $143 million in the past quarter. This is normal for the industry, particularly for high-end vehicles. However they and not their banks likely bear the residual risk. So this could prove to be very expensive cash if lease-end resale prices are less than those built into the leases. Such unpleasant surprises are far from unknown in the industry. Oh, and Tesla has also run through their subsidies from the State of California, in the form of ZEV credits: last quarter they were $57 million, but this quarter they were negligible. They won't be able to count on this cash and the fat per-vehicle margin it has provided as they move towards the Model 3.

So how can they improve their cash position? In two words: franchised dealerships. Ford Motor Co. had Q1 revenue of $36.9 billion and inventories of $9.8 billion, or 27%. Averaged across a few quarters gives a level of 25%. How about Tesla, with their direct sales model? They have inventory of $1.6 billion on revenue of $1.3 billion, or 125% – 5x the level of Ford.

Can Tesla afford to expand their direct sales network? My answer remains no.

Tesla violates two prime rules of new ventures: preserve cash and preserve management time

To be fair, there is a devil's advocate position. The land and structures of a dealership hold value, where used by Tesla or someone else. In particular, Tesla could lease its stores from existing car dealerships, with the added benefit that they might be able to avoid creating stand-alone service bays. Banks could also provide floorplan, industry jargon for the financing of dealership inventory. These would lessen the drain on cash – but on net they would not generate cash. Back of the envelope calculations – very round numbers – suggest that the cost of a national dealer network would run $5 billion. (I've gone back and forth on this with co-blogger David Ruggles and one other invidiual.) Net of financing, this might require $1 billion in additional cash, spread out across multiple quarters. So it is not out of the question. To my knowledge, however, Tesla has not demonstrated any distinct advantages to its direct sales approach, other than PR, at the expense of significant management time and (I suspect) legal and lobbying costs. In fact, on the Pied Piper dealership satisfaction index, which uses mystery shoppers, Tesla ranks dead last.

On the dealership issue Tesla violates two prime rules of new ventures: preserve cash and preserve management time. So I remain a skeptic.

Footnote: Nikkei just reported that Nissan – joint with Renault a larger electric vehicle manufacturer than Tesla – is selling off its battery making operation. Why? Doing it in-house is more expensive and slower in keeping up with new developments. Why should Tesla be an exception? Source: 日産、車向け電池事業撤退　子会社売却へ 2016/8/5 17:34 日本経済新聞　電子版