Mike Smitka, Torino Italy
In 2030 I expect that Toyota, VW and GM will remain the top 3 global automotive producers (though not necessarily in that order). The flip side is that neither vehicle electrification nor autonomy nor Mobility 2.0 businesses will prove disruptive.
It's anyone's guess at this point what the incoming Administration will do. [I'm guilty, having indulged in speculation on trade policy and the auto industry in my previous post.] So why should each and every change in the economy be viewed as a reaction to Trump? Well, I suppose it's easier than thinking.
...don't blame Trump – yet...
One of the things that appears to motivate Trump supporters is a desire for better jobs. They will be disappointed: trading part-time work at Walmart for sewing garments in a sweatshop is not what they have in mind. If he really does clamp down on trade – one of the few economic tools he has without going to Congress – the results will be counterproductive. The impact on the auto industry could be worse.
...campaign nostrums do not good automotive policy make...
Mike Smitka
I'm working on a paper for a conference in Torino on disrupters in the auto industry. Contrary to most, I'm not convinced that battery electric vehicles (BEVs), autonomous vehicles or "Mobility 2.0" business models will be disrupters. That's not because I believe these technologies are unworkable. Indeed, I expect BEVs will one day dominate. I define "disrupter" narrowly. I argue (but not here) that existing car companies will dominate, so that the transition will only be disruptive for the portion of the supply chain devoted to fuel delivery and engine components. That's not a small footprint. Even there the impact won't be disruptive, because BEVs will diffuse slowly.
we should look to 2030 for BEVs to go mainstream
