China: yuan depreciation or dollar appreciation?

by Mike Smitka, Economics, Washington and Lee University

The coverage I've read focuses, implicitly or explicitly, on the RMB [yuan 元] / US$ rate, that is, the bilateral context. (An exception is the graph in the latest Economist article, The Devaluation of the Yuan: The Battle of Midpoint, 15 Aug 2015, 63). Their focus is however capital flows, which as I've blogged about before in "China's Pending Depreciation" [on this blog] and "Foreign Exchange Controls" [on my Econ 274 "China's Economy" class blog] will lead to a fall in the value of the yuan – exactly what's happened.

Ho, hum: the 3% change still leaves the yuan stronger than in September 2008

How to Grow a Financial Business: Bubbles vs the Long Haul

I've been struck by the correlation between large shifts in the flow of funds and bubbles, but haven't found data other than for the US and Japan, and those metrics aren't directly comparable. So let me go from the macro(prodential) to the micro behavioral: how can you grow a financial business? There are three ways:

1. provide better service
2. price below competitors
3. take on more risk than competitors

Employment: tortoise slow, tortoise steady?

Since Summer 2011 job growth has generally outpaced population growth, adjusting for the retirement of the baby boomers. However, it's a small mountain that we need to climb, given the severity of the Great Recession. As a result, the economy remains several years away from normal levels – an optimistic projection shows we might be back to normal as early as summer 2017. More realistically, we're looking at late 2018 or early 2019, given headwinds to the economy. These include slowing global growth and a strong dollar, and the end of the oil boom, which is hurting investment faster than lower gasoline prices are adding to consumption. In any case, the economy remains 6 million jobs shy of where we need to be. That's reflected in many things, large and small. To give one example, I sit on the board of the local United Way of Rockbridge. We hear that local non-profits that attempt to meet emergency needs for utilities, food and rent see more rather than less need, with more working poor showing up than two years ago: jobs are failing to provide income sufficient to keep up with long-run needs.

Lambo: A Rampage of Conspicuous Consumption

mike smitka

If vehicles were purely practical devices to get from point A to point B then car enthusiasts would not exist. Colors? – everything would be gray, easier than white but cooler and less prone to showing dirt than black. Acceleration? – why? Comfort, yes, critical for the commuter, and autonomous cruise control would be part of every vehicle, overriding any attempt at aggressive driving while eliminating rear-end collisions. Perhaps seats could be customized for those unusually tall or short, or for the minority with trim physiques. Sizes, well, there surely would need to be a range, from 2-seat commuters to soccer mom SUVs. And cost! – without superfluous variety, engineering and tooling would be spread across production runs of a few million, while advertising would be unnecessary. There'd be no need to maintain much inventory in the system, either -- in contrast to the 60+ days of inventory in the system today, and the megadealer with 300 vehicles on their and hundreds more off-site. Repairs would be cheaper, and so would insurance, so depreciation aside, the cost of ownership would be lower. Used cars would likewise be a commodity, carrying a minimal markup, and easy to sell.

Elephants in the Room! Startling New Studies Revealed!

ruggles/Wards

Two important automotive conferences were held in New York City recently in conjunction with the New York International Auto Show. The first conference was the J. D. Power Automotive Forum, followed the next day by the Driving Sales President's Club Event. The conferences had at least one thing in common. They both were launching points for two new surveys regarding what consumers supposedly want in their retail shopping experience, based on consumers answering questions to survey questions. AutoTrader released its new survey at the Power conference while Driving Sales revealed its own survey the next day at their own conference. The presentations of these survey results were rife with anecdotes. Both "studies" "proved" what some people have been trying to prove for decades, that consumers prefer not to negotiate and don't like the sales process.

...the continuation of attempts to predict auto buying behavior by asking survey questions instead of observing actions...

Notes from the International Car Rental Show April 2015

Ruggles/Wards/Bobit Media

I was recently privileged to attend the International Car Rental Show, held at Bally’s Las Vegas. I have attended this show in previous years and always came away with something noteworthy. This year, for the first time, the show included a break out track for auto dealers. While my primary interest was keeping up with all things car rental as they impact residual values going forward, I felt compelled to attend the car dealer sessions. And was I in for a shock.

Pardon the Sarcasm

ruggles/Wards

I am astonished that the new “hot trend” in auto retail is thinking that a car deal should be accomplished in an hour or so. Hell, it takes almost that long to explain how the infotainment system works, let alone the other gadgets in a new vehicle.

How long does it take to go over all of the forms demanded by government regulation, or do we just have the customer sign them without reading them? After all, we want our customers to be happy, right?

The 6 Fluids

As a car owner, the best thing that you can do for your vehicle is to keep it properly maintained. You don’t need a mechanic to check the fluids in your engine, nor do you need a degree to be able to top them off when necessary. By taking a few simple measures and making sure that these six fluids are within proper levels, you can prolong the life of your car. Your owner’s manual will have everything you need to know about maintenance schedules and recommended fluids. For a great running vehicle, here are the six automotive fluids you shouldn’t forget to check.

The PACE of Automotive Innovation

Suppliers are integral to new technology in the auto industry to an extent not true since the early years of the 20th century, when ventures such as Ford began as mere assemblers, not manufacturers. That will be highlighted on Monday, at the 21st PACE "academy awards" for supplier innovation. (For those not in the know, Monday's the opening night of the SAE [Society of Automotive Engineers] in Detroit.)

China's Pending Depreciation

As I prepare to begin grading final exams from my course on China's economy, let me start a series of posts stemming from my teaching this term, and from a lecture (ppt here) that I prepared for the Asian Studies program at James Madison University to my north, in Harrisonburg VA. (It's also my son's alma mater.) Here I focus on China's exchange rate.