Posts on SeekingAlpha and substack

I am (obviously) no longer very active at Blogspot. I do however post substative articles on SeekingAlpha, who pay me a pittance, which is more than google. Furthermore, my most popular SeekingAlpha articles get more comments than my average number of page views here. I have started posting non-stock-market oriented content on Substack. I will do so (note the originality of the title) at economicsandautos.substack.com. which I have now renamed smitka.substack.com, as, well, my name is unforgettable, er, shorter, and I will write on Japan, China, and other topics as the impulse arises.

My substack posts:

1. The Wrong Firms Are Winning: China's Automotive Industrial Policy – Picking Winners is Hard for the Stock Market, and it's Hard for Governments Dec 20, 2024
2. Automotive Reshoring is a Pipe Dream: Long Lead Times, Too Few Workers Dec 2, 2024
3. Repo Man: Why He's Central to New Car Sales Oct 29, 2024.
4. China's Policy Context: Crisis Management not Fundamental Reform October 19, 2024
5. Why Entry into Making Electric Vehicles is Easy Oct 11, 2024. OK, it's the automotive industry. A friend in Silicon Valley cautioned that US$1 billion is a lot of money for a startup to raise.
6. Manila and the Ridehailing Market: If you think your commute is bad... Sep 4, 2024
7. Japan: Falling Population is a Challenge, Not a Crisis Jul 31, 2024
8. Protectionism and Local Production: Tales of Excess Entry: EV Proponents, Be Careful What You Wish For! Jul 24, 2024
9. The Rise of the Big Three: ...or How I Approach the Auto Industry July 16, 2024

My most recent SA articles are:

1. China Autos 2024Q2: Zeekr and the Geely Group, July 15, 2024
2. Tesla China: Counting the Competition, March 6, 2024
3. Disruption and EVs: Tesla, Wuling and BYD, February 4, 2024
4. China EVs and Tesla's Shanghai Challenge, September 26, 2023
5. China EVs: Focus on Guangzhou Auto and Its Aion Brand, September 3, 2023
6. China: EV Losers Will Multiply, May 28, 2023, and
7. China's Automotive Slowdown, March 9, 2023.

PS Co-blogger Dave Ruggles has turned his retirement focus to guitar. Mike Smitka, mostly retired, continues to write about automotive issues. During COVID he learned to read Chinese, and now has a database of 4+ years of model-level domestic sales data for China covering almost 1,000 light passenger vehicles. Replete with classfications of drivetrain, segment, brand, firm and price for each model, it's enabled a variety of analysis. That includes a series of presentations at the annual GERPISA automotive research network conferences. While I've not finished sorting data, my most recent presentation, at the June 2024 GERPISA Bordeaux conference, was the geography of Chinese vehicle sales, showing that the sales of firms such as Guangzhou Auto but also Tesla exhibit a strong "home" bias. In contrast, BYD, VW, GM and Geely seem to have strong sales throughout China.
I've only put together data for a few models so have not yet posted my presentation to the GERPISA website. You can find previous analysis of the new model effect, the very similar size distribution of sales in China and Europe (eg, how important are the top 8 sellers in each market), and how interactions between new and used vehicle markets explain COVID car price movements in the US, and the similarity in the geographic distribution of suppliers in China to those in North America and Europe.